Model for the assessment of probability of road link interruption due to earthquakes.

# Models

## Evacuation Model

The Evacuation Model is a prototypical model that represents how the population can be evacuated from the hazard area(s) to the safety zone(s). The purpose of the evacuation model is to determine how fast and in which health condition(s) the population is able to leave the hazard area(s).

## Population exposure model

Model for distributing population in spatial and temporal dimensions.

This model uses temporal and spatial proxies in order to disaggregate the population from administrative units to spatio-temporal grids. The outcome is used in CRISMA as basis for time-dependent exposure assessment and in further steps as a base data for evacuation and casualty modeling (Aubrecht et al., 2014ab; Steinnocher et al., 2014).

## VTT House model

Model for estimating the extreme cold weather related vulnerability curves for buildings.

## Forest fire behaviour model

The Forest Fire Behaviour model is a deterministic integrated system, based on the Model of Rothermel (1972), for the spatial simulation of forest fire behaviour over complex topography and wind flows in areas with heterogeneous vegetation cover. Its main components are the fire behaviour predictions at local scale and wind field prediction at local and large scale taking into account different thermal and recirculation effects.

Firestation also has the capability to simulate smoke dispersion and particles concentration over the area afected by the simualted fire.

## Dikes vulnerability model

The dikes vulnerability model is a model programmed in python which allow to calculate the potential statistical impact on dikes depending on their status.The model is based on the damage probability matrix.

In view of results of dike vulnerability model, the user could make an informed choice on break or failure dikes for local simulation.

## Evacuation model for coastal submersion

The evacuation model developed for coastal submersion in Charente-Maritime (France) used the software LSM2D. There are three models. Two models are simplified virtual models and the last is a model located on the Charente-Maritime. The area 'Les Boucholeurs' was one of the most impacted zones during the Xynthia storm surge and is modeled with LSM2D.

For each model, several scenarios are simulated.

The main results of a model are:

- th estimated time to evacuate the population
- the estimated closed roads
- the estimated casualties on population
- the estimated impacts on buildings due to the flood

## Evacuation Resources Simulation Model

Evacuation Resources Simulation Model calcuates the impact of resource allocations chosen by the user (from the proposals based on the preparedness plan) to mitigate the situation.